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Title: Avelo's Florida Gamble: Expansion or Overreach?
Avelo Airlines is betting big on Florida, announcing new routes and expanding its presence in the Sunshine State. But is this a strategic move or a risky overextension? Let's dive into the numbers.
Florida Expansion: A Closer Look
Avelo is adding new flights to and from several Florida airports, including Lakeland, Destin-Fort Walton Beach, and Key West. They're also restoring some routes they previously dropped due to low demand. The airline is banking on low fares (starting at $34 one-way) to attract budget-conscious travelers. Avelo to add new flights in Florida starting at $34. Where to and when
Avelo will add a second aircraft to its Lakeland base in February 2026, and they are slated to be the first U.S. airline to fly Embraer 195-E2s in 2027, with an order of up to 100 new aircraft. This is a substantial investment.
However, a closer look reveals some potential turbulence. In October, Avelo announced it was dropping three routes, including two in Florida, due to lack of demand. This raises a key question: what has changed in the past few weeks to justify such a rapid reversal and expansion? Are they seeing a genuine surge in demand, or are they simply chasing market share?
Avelo is adding nonstop flights to Chicago at Concord-Padgett Regional Airport and is bringing back a discontinued route to Nashville this winter. Service from the Charlotte suburb to O’Hare International and Nashville International airports will start in February. The low-fare provider is the only airline offering service between Cabarrus County and these two cities.
Routes to Chicago and Nashville will begin on Feb. 12, 2026, offering four flights per week on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays. One-way tickets start at $35, according to the company. Flights can be purchased online at AveloAir.com.
“Adding an affordable way to get to the Windy City and to Music City this spring inspires more travel as we gear up for spring break, more vacations and connecting with friends and family,” said Avelo Airlines founder and CEO Andrew Levy.
Avelo began service in Concord in May 2024, with its first flight going to New Haven, Connecticut.
The company described it as a “fast, easy, and stress-free alternative to the long lines, congestion, and frequent flight delays at Charlotte Douglas International Airport.”
Avelo later opened its base in Concord in March, initially positioning one Boeing Next-Generation 737 at the airport, and adding a second aircraft last month to service passengers.
However, the airline has faced some challenges in Concord, which came with flight cuts.
Through Avelo Airlines, Concord-Padgett Regional Airport in Concord is offering service to Chicago and Nashville in 2026. JEFF SINER jsiner@charlotteobserver.com
Music City route returns to Concord
Service to Nashville was discontinued last April along with several other routes due to low ticket sales, The Charlotte Observer previously reported. The cancellations to Tennessee’s largest city and other destinations such as Daytona Beach, Florida, were attributed to “poor performance” and flights that weren’t booking in a “normal pattern,” according to Avelo. Budget airline in Concord adds route, restores another 7 months after dumping it
The seasonality of the flight and frequency level was minimal when Avelo launched Nashville originally back in April. Instead of two flights per week, the airline is doing four, which provides more flexibility for travelers.
“Initially, we did not have the demand and enough aircraft availability to let the route improve over time,” spokeswoman Courtney Goff stated. “We added a second aircraft to our Charlotte/Concord base last month, which allows us to let this route, and our other new markets, mature more and develop.”
Levy said the decision to return to the Nashville route shows the ongoing need for affordable travel options.
The Chicago and Nashville routes are now among 10 offered at Concord-Padgett. The other eight destinations are Albany, New York; Boston / Manchester, New Hampshire; Lakeland / Orlando, Florida; New Haven, Connecticut; New York / Long Island, New York; Rochester, New York; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and West Palm Beach, Florida.
More on Concord-Padgett Regional Airport
The airport is owned by the city and opened in 1994. It was renamed in honor of former mayor Scott Padgett in 2018.
Houston-based Avelo became the third airline at Concord. The one-runway airport also provides service for Allegiant Air and Sun Country Airlines.
NASCAR race teams use the airport frequently because of its proximity to Charlotte Motor Speedway. It serves as an alternative to nearby Charlotte Douglas, one of the world’s busiest airports and a major hub for American Airlines.
The ICE Controversy: A Lingering Headwind?
Beyond the route adjustments, Avelo faces another potential challenge: its past partnership with ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) for deportation flights. Protests erupted at airports in 26 cities, including several in Florida, over the airline's involvement.
While Avelo argues that these charter flights provide stability and keep their employees working, the reputational damage could be a drag on their expansion plans. It's hard to quantify the impact of negative press, but anecdotal evidence (online forums, social media sentiment) suggests that a significant portion of the traveling public is aware of this connection. How many potential customers are choosing other airlines because of this? It's impossible to say for sure, but it's a factor that Avelo can't afford to ignore.
Avelo's Strategy: A House of Cards?
Avelo's overall strategy seems to be based on a few key assumptions: low fares will drive demand, underserved airports offer a competitive advantage, and they can effectively manage costs to maintain profitability. But each of these assumptions carries its own risks.
Can Avelo consistently offer fares as low as $34 and still make money? The airline industry is notorious for its razor-thin margins, and fuel costs, labor expenses, and maintenance fees can quickly erode profitability. Also, the government shutdown and overworked air traffic controllers could still affect flight delays.
The reliance on smaller, regional airports is a double-edged sword. While it avoids the congestion and delays of major hubs, it also limits the potential customer base. Are there enough travelers in these markets to sustain Avelo's growth?
I've looked at hundreds of airline expansions, and this feels like a high-wire act. Avelo's success hinges on a delicate balance of factors, and even a minor disruption could send the whole operation tumbling down. The airline is banking on capturing a specific niche of the market, but what happens if larger airlines start to compete on price or offer similar routes?
Is This Expansion Sustainable?
Avelo's Florida gamble is a bold move, but the data suggests that it's far from a sure thing. The airline faces challenges from fluctuating demand, reputational risks, and the inherent volatility of the airline industry. Whether this expansion proves to be a strategic triumph or a costly misstep remains to be seen.